Senegal’s home gas reserves will be primarily used to produce electricity. Authorities expect that home gas infrastructure initiatives will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of these important power assets is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide expertise group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth research that analyse the financial impact of the various gas-to-power methods obtainable to Senegal. Two very completely different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very vital system cost differences between the two primary gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in fact a lot better suited than combined cycle fuel generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gasoline sources cost-effectively, the examine reveals. Total value differences between the 2 technologies might reach as a lot as 480 million USD until 2035 relying on eventualities.
Two competing and very completely different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy situations to identify the cost optimum way to ship new era capacity for a specific nation, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies present vital price differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different in terms of the profiles during which they will function. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it can operate at 90% load factor always. On the other hand, versatile ICE technology can operate efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other generation technologies that may make up the country’s power mix.
In particular our examine reveals that when operating in an electrical energy community of limited measurement corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to significantly broaden the network capability would be extraordinarily costly in all potential scenarios.
Cost variations between the technologies are defined by a number of elements. First of all, scorching climates negatively impression the output of gasoline generators greater than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, pressure gauge แบบ น้ำมัน to Senegal’s anticipated entry to low cost domestic gasoline, the working costs become less impactful than the investment costs. In other words, as a end result of low gasoline costs lower operating prices, it is financially sound for the country to rely on ICE energy vegetation, that are cheaper to build.
Technology modularity also performs a key function. Senegal is anticipated to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capability annually to have the ability to meet the rising demand. This is much lower than the capability of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that have to be built in one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy vegetation, then again, are modular, which means they can be constructed exactly as and when the country needs them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as much as 240 million dollars of extra value for the system by 2035. The value distinction between the technologies may even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to construct new renewable power capability throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The development of gasoline infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays usually are not unusual, inflicting fuel supply disruptions that may have an enormous financial impact on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is conscious of one thing about that. Only last yr, important gas supply issues have triggered shutdowns at some of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power vegetation. Because Gas turbines function on a continuous combustion course of, they require a relentless provide of gas and a stable dispatched load to generate consistent energy output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing an excellent strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants however, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their versatile working profile, they had been able to preserve a much higher stage of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of two years delay within the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into fuel engines, the price of gas delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional price.
Whichever way you look at it, new ICE-Gas technology capacity will decrease the entire value of electrical energy in Senegal in all possible eventualities. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand progress in a cost-optimal means, no less than 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capacity shall be required by 2026.
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